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Internet Message Format | 1991-06-28 | 33KB

Return-path: <ota+space.mail-errors@andrew.cmu.edu> X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson Received: from hogtown.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests) ID </afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr1/ota/Mailbox/EbfZY8O00WBwEAqk5C>; Tue, 5 Feb 91 02:04:40 -0500 (EST) Message-ID: <kbfZY3q00WBw4Ap05U@andrew.cmu.edu> Precedence: junk Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU Date: Tue, 5 Feb 91 02:04:36 -0500 (EST) Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #112 SPACE Digest Volume 13 : Issue 112 Today's Topics: Re: Ultimate Weapon Re: Ultimate Weapon NASA Budget Briefing Scheduled (Forwarded) SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW (predictions may be outdated) Administrivia: Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to space+@andrew.cmu.edu. Other mail, esp. [un]subscription requests, should be sent to space-request+@andrew.cmu.edu, or, if urgent, to tm2b+@andrew.cmu.edu ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 31 Jan 91 18:50:29 GMT From: usc!cs.utexas.edu!ut-emx!anita@ucsd.edu (Anita Cochran) Subject: Re: Ultimate Weapon In article <3208@legs.UUCP>, lane@legs.UUCP (Lane Kagey) writes: > in article <1991Jan22.152955.4632@d.cs.okstate.edu>, rjs@d.cs.okstate.edu (Roland Stolfa) says: > > Fellow spacers, lend me your eyes for a few seconds...ok, minutes. > > I would like to ask a few questions about black holes. As this progresses, > > you will see how it relates to my subject line. > have any of you read "the krone experiment", i don't remember the author. > it described a physicist who 'discovered' how to build a black hole and > contain it. i won't give the details cause it would spoil it. > it postulates several interesting effects and problems related to such a > situation. Yes, I have read it and the author is J. Craig Wheeler. He actually even knows something about the subject as he is a theoretical astrophysicist at the University of Texas. Actually, one of the most interesting parts of this book, to me, was his portrayal of the scientists. I am sure there are a few of Craig's colleagues wondering which one of the characters are them. All in all it is an entertaining book and well written. The concept is definitely neat. -- Anita Cochran arpa: anita@binkley.as.utexas.edu anita@astro.as.utexas.edu snail: Astronomy Dept., The Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX, 78712 at&t: (512) 471-1471 ------------------------------ Date: 31 Jan 91 17:12:15 GMT From: sun-barr!newstop!texsun!csccat!cscdec!jack@lll-winken.llnl.gov (Jack Hudler) Subject: Re: Ultimate Weapon In article <3208@legs.UUCP> lane@legs.UUCP (Lane Kagey) writes: > >have any of you read "the krone experiment", i don't remember the author. >it described a physicist who 'discovered' how to build a black hole and >contain it. i won't give the details cause it would spoil it. ^^^^^^^^^^^ In fact the book is about his failure to contain it and its effects on the earth. -- Jack Computer Support Corporation Dallas,Texas Hudler Internet: jack@cscdec.cs.com ------------------------------ Date: 31 Jan 91 20:21:17 GMT From: usc!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!jato!mars.jpl.nasa.gov!baalke@ucsd.edu (Ron Baalke) Subject: NASA Budget Briefing Scheduled (Forwarded) NASA FY 1992 BUDGET BRIEFING SCHEDULED A briefing on NASA's fiscal year 1992 budget request will be held Feb. 4, at 2:30 p.m. EST in the 6th floor auditorium, NASA Headquarters, 400 Maryland Ave., S.W., Washington, D.C. Participants will include NASA Administrator Richard H. Truly, Deputy Administrator James R. Thompson Jr. and Comptroller Thomas Campbell. A summary of the budget request will be distributed at the beginning of the press conference. The briefing will be carried live on NASA Select television (Satcon F2R, transponder 13, frequency 3960 MHz, 72 degrees west longitude). ___ _____ ___ /_ /| /____/ \ /_ /| Ron Baalke | baalke@mars.jpl.nasa.gov | | | | __ \ /| | | | Jet Propulsion Lab | ___| | | | |__) |/ | | |___ M/S 301-355 | It's 10PM, do you know /___| | | | ___/ | |/__ /| Pasadena, CA 91109 | where your spacecraft is? |_____|/ |_|/ |_____|/ | We do! ------------------------------ X-Delivery-Notice: SMTP MAIL FROM does not correspond to sender. Date: Thu, 31 Jan 91 01:51:05 MST From: std_oler%HG.ULeth.CA@vma.cc.cmu.edu (Cary Oler) Subject: SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW (predictions may be outdated) X-St-Vmsmail-To: st%"space+@andrew.cmu.edu" /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ Please Note: The following report has been delayed in order to analyze the data being collected so far regarding the enormous burst of solar activity which has occurred recently. This report has been updated to be valid as of 30 January. Also, a small addition has been made to the reports. The HF propagation prediction charts, geomagnetic prediction chart, solar activity prediction chart, and the auroral activity prediction charts now have a confidence rating associated with them. All uncertainties and possible inaccuracies in the predictions are calculated to determine the approximate confidence of the given charts. This confidence level is stated as a percentage. Low percentages represent low confidence levels and therefore high uncertainties and possible inaccuracies in the prediction charts. High percentages represent high confidence levels and low amounts of uncertainty and possible inaccuracies in the prediction charts. So the higher the confidence level, the more accurate the predictions should be. As can be seen, the confidence levels for many of the charts in this report are quite low. This is in response to the uncertainty of the intensity and occurrences of major flaring. /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ --- SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW --- January 30 to February 05, 1991 Report Based In-Part from Data Obtained from the Space Environment Services Center Boulder Colorado -------- SOLAR TERRESTRIAL REVIEW FOR 22 JANUARY TO 29 JANUARY. A major burst of solar activity has occurred over the past week. The solar flux soared from a level of 221 on 22 January to 367 on 30 January! This increase matches the solar flux achieved on 10 November, 1979 (the current flux level is the highest so far recorded for this solar cycle). Solar activity was moderate to high this week. A very powerful class X10.8/SF long-duration Tenflare erupted from Region 6471 as it came into view on the eastern limb. This flare was associated with strong Type II and IV sweeps, and strong discrete radio bursts. The peak burst at 245 MHz was 57,000 s.f.u. (solar flux units), while the 10 cm wavelengths experienced a peak burst of 3,500 s.f.u.. The flare was a long-duration event, lasting 3 hours and 28 minutes. The location of the flare was S16E78, near the eastern limb. On 27 January, yet another powerful X-class flare erupted from Region 6471. This flare was rated a class X1.9/1B Tenflare which was associated with strong discrete radio bursts and a Type IV sweep. The flare occurred at a location of S14E59 and reached a peak intensity at 15:50 UT on 27 January. The duration of this flare was 1 hour and 25 minutes. A weak proton enhancement was observed after 04:00 UT on 28 January. A polar cap disturbance has also been detected. The disturbance commenced near 18:00 UT on 28 January, in response to the proton enhancement. Regions which have been active are Regions 6462, 6466, 6469, 6471 and 6476 (a significant increase over the past months). Region 6471 is presently the most formidable region visible. It has a strong magnetic Delta configuration and an extensive penumbral region. There are 55 spots visible in this region alone. Magnetic gradients and fields are high across the inversion line in the trailer spot complex. Further major flaring from this region is very likely. Region 6471 is also the largest region on the disk, covering an area of near 6,690 million square kilometers, an increase of 1,920 million square kilometers in only the past 24 hours (a remarkably rapid increase in area). The size of this region, combined with the complexity of the system and the associated magnetic gradients make this region a prime candidate for potential energetic proton flaring. Regions 6462 and 6466 (which did contain high gradients and Delta configurations) have decayed and relaxed somewhat. But they are still capable of producing major energetic flares. Region 6476 has shown some very bright plage recently, which is being held partly responsible for the increased solar flux. The background x-ray flux as of 30 January was at a level of C2.8 (due also in part to the rapid growth of several regions, including Region 6471). Enhanced x-ray background levels are anticipated for the next week. Radio propagation conditions have been very good recently, excluding the occassional shortwave fades which have occurred due to the minor and major flaring over the sunlit hemisphere. The enhanced ionizing solar radiation has provided openings all the way up to 6 meters. The relatively low levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity have provided very good opportunities for DX on the HF bands. SHORT TERM SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST Solar activity is expected to remain moderate to high throughout the remainder of the week. The potential for proton flaring is high. M-class flare probabilities are at 95%. X-class flare potentials are steady near 40%. There is also a significantly high 45% probability for proton flaring over the next three days at least. The Space Environment Services Center is continuing a condition YELLOW alert status for potential PCA activity. This means that a high probability exists that a polar cap absorption event could occur on the heels of an energetic proton flare. Hence, polar regions are advised to remain on the alert for potential PCA related activity (ie. radio blackouts, neutron or riometer activity, etc). Region 6471 will be crossing the central meridian by 01 February. It is now in a more sensitive position where plasma ejection trajectories could have major impacts with the earth. The risk for proton and PCA activity will peak as it edges into the western hemisphere. The solar flux is expected to remain high for the next two days, afterwhich it should begin declining. The sunspot number hit 418 on 28 January, and is now holding at a value of 378 on 30 January. Models are currently examining the situation to determine the potential significance of this recent burst of activity for the longer-term. Conclusions will be posted in a few weeks. Geomagnetic activity could easily reach minor to major storm levels over the coming week. It is heavily dependent on how energetic solar activity becomes. Hence, the accuracy of any prediction is likely to be low due to the unpredictability of the time, duration and intensity of any occurring energetic events. Enhanced activity is likely between about 03 to 06 February due to possible enhanced corpuscular emissions from Region 6471. There is also a chance for slightly enhanced activity near 02 February due to recurrent coronal activity. But by far, the greatest risk for significant geophysical activity exists in the potential for strong major flaring in the active regions currently visible (particularly Region 6471). Auroral activity should remain at low intensity levels until about 03 or 04 February, when increased activity could become visible. Again, this is heavily dependent on the frequency and intensity of solar flaring. Moderate activity should be visible over high latitudes, while low latitudes should witness mostly low activity. Please note, however, that a significant risk exists for major auroral storming if strong solar flaring occurs within the next five to seven days, particularly from Region 6471. HF propagation conditions should remain well above normal until near 03/04 February (or possibly even later), barring any significant major solar flaring. There is a high risk for fairly frequent short-wave fades and SID's due to the numerous minor M-class flares and subflares which are occurring over much of the solar disk. These effects will remain confined, of course, to the sunlit hemisphere. VHF propagation conditions will be normal to above normal this week, with higher potentials for DX, particularly on the lower VHF bands. If strong major flaring occurs, watch for possibly wide-spread bistatic auroral backscatter communications on the VHF bands during periods of possibly strong auroral and geomagnetic activity. Watch for possible predictions included in any future major flare alerts or magnetic storm warnings. SUMMARY OF ALL ACTIVE REGIONS VISIBLE ON THE SOLAR DISK AS OF 31 JANUARY Region # Location LO Area Class LL Spots Magnetic Type -------- -------- --- ---- ----- -- ----- ------------- 6462 S18W45 203 3330 FKI 19 038 BETA 6464 N25W64 222 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA 6465 N09W56 214 0120 BXO 11 011 BETA 6466 S09W38 196 1680 DKI 09 029 BETA-DELTA 6469 S14W25 183 2160 EKI 13 057 BETA-GAMMA 6471 S12E15 143 6690 EKC 14 055 BETA-DELTA 6472 N12W31 189 0390 CAO 08 015 BETA 6473 S15E30 128 0300 CSO 06 003 BETA 6474 S11W17 175 0060 BXO 04 012 BETA 6475 S16E05 153 0060 CRO 05 003 BETA 6476 N20E42 116 1200 FKO 18 017 BETA 6477 S17E37 121 0300 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 6479 N05E49 109 0180 CAO 07 006 BETA NOTES: Area is in million square kilometers. Angular extent (LL) and solar longitude (LO) are in degree's. For more information regarding the terminology used above, request the Glossary of Solar Terrestrial Terms from: "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca". H-ALPHA PLAGES WITHOUT SPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AS OF 00:00 UT ON 31 JANUARY. REGION LOCATION LO COMMENTS (IF ANY) ------ -------- --- ------------------------------- 6463 S07W56 214 6468 S21W86 244 ACTIVE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN BETWEEN 31 JANUARY AND 02 FEBRUARY Region Latitude Longitude (Helio.) ------ -------- --------- 6448 S34 066 NOTES: For definitions regarding the above, request the "Glossary of Solar Terrestrial Terms" from "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca". GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF RECENT PLANETARY (GLOBAL) GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY Cumulative Geomagnetic Activity History Peak Planetary Geomagnetic Activity during the past 96 hours ____________________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | VERY HIGH! | | VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | HIGH | | SEVERE STORM | | | | | MODERATE | | MAJOR STORM | | | | | LOW - MOD. | | MINOR STORM | | | | | LOW | | VERY ACTIVE | | | | | NONE | | ACTIVE | | | | | NONE | | UNSETTLED |********| * ****| *** | *** *| NONE | | QUIET |********|********|********|********| NONE | | VERY QUIET |********|********|********|********| NONE | |-------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|------------| | Geomagnetic Field | Sun. | Mon. | Tue. | Wed. | Anomaly | | Conditions | Given in 3-hour intervals | Intensity | |____________________________________________________________________| NOTES: The data above represents planetary geomagnetic activity. Data from many magnetic observatories around the world are used in constructing the above chart. The first graph line for each day represents geomagnetic activity which occurred between 00 UT and 03 UT. The second graph line represents activity which occurred between 03 UT and 06 UT, etc. For information regarding the interpretation and/or use of these charts, send a request for the document "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: std_oler@hg.uleth.ca. PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (27 JANUARY - 05 FEBRUARY) ________________________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | | | | | | | VERY HIGH! | | VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | MAJOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW - MOD. | | MINOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW | | VERY ACTIVE | | | | | | | | | | | NONE | | ACTIVE | | | | | |** | * | * |** |** | NONE | | UNSETTLED | | | | **|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | | QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | | VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------| | Geomagnetic Field |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| Anomaly | | Conditions | Given in 8-hour intervals | Intensity | |________________________________________________________________________| CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 35% NOTES: Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over periods in excess of several days. Hence, there may be some deviations from the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component. GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS Cumulative Graphical Analysis of Solar Activity ____________________________________________________________ 377| | V.HIGH 363|......................1979 Record Level....................F| V.HIGH 348| *F| V.HIGH 334| *F| V.HIGH 320|.............Current Solar Cycle 22 Record Level.........**F| V.HIGH 306| **F| V.HIGH 291| F**F| HIGH 277| *F**F| HIGH 263| F = Major Flare(s) F*F**F| HIGH 249| F*F**F| MOD. 234| *FFF *F*F**F| MOD. 220| ****FFF* * ***F*F**F| MOD. 206| *****FFF* * ***** F ***F*F**F| MOD. 192| *F*****FFF*** *** * F**** ******* *F*******F*F**F| MOD. 177| **F*****FFF*********FFF*F******* ***********F*******F*F**F| LOW 163|***F*****FFF*********FFF*F********************F*******F*F**F| LOW ------------------------------------------------------------ Cumulative 60 day Solar Activity Record Start Date: December 1, 1990 NOTES: Left-hand column digits represent the 10.7 cm solar radio flux obtained from Ottawa. The right-hand column describes the relative solar activity for that period based on the average number of major and minor flares that can be expected for related solar flux values. Plot lines labeled with the letter "F" represent days where at least one major flare occurred (ie. class M5 or greater flare). GRAPHICAL 20-DAY SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTION Solar Activity _________________________________________________________________ | 370 |**|**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 355 | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 340 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 325 | | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 310 | | | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 295 | | | | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 280 | | | | | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 265 | | | | | | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 250 | | | | | | | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | | 235 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 220 | | | | | | | | | |**| | | | | | | | | |**| | 205 | | | | | | | | | | |**|**|**| | | |**|**|**| | | 190 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |**|**|**| | | | | |-----|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--| |Solar|30|31|01|02|03|04|05|06|07|08|09|10|11|12|13|14|15|16|17|18| |Flux | Jan | February | ----------------------------------------------------------------- CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 60% HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (27 JANUARY - 05 FEBRUARY) High Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | FAIR |***|* |* |* | |* | | | | | ------- | POOR | | **| **| **|***| **|***|***|***|***| 35% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD |***|* *|* *|* *| *| *| | | | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD | | * | * | * |** |** |***|***|* *|* *| LEVEL | FAIR | | | | | | | | | * | * | ------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD |***|***|***|***| *| *| *| *| | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD | | | | |** |** |** |** |***|***| LEVEL | FAIR | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | 50% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTES: High latitudes >= 55 degree's north latitude Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 degree's north latitude Low latitudes < 40 degree's north latitude POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (27 JANUARY - 05 FEBRUARY) INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS HIGH LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT | | QUALITY |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |ABOVE NORM| | | | * | * | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | NORMAL|***|***|***|* *|* *|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |BELOW NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | | | | | | | | | | | 40%| | | | | |*|*| |*| | | 20% | * | * | * | * |** |** |** |** |** |** | 20%| | | | |*|*|*|*|*|*| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| MIDDLE LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT | | QUALITY |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |ABOVE NORM| | * | **| **| **| * | * | * | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | NORMAL|***|* *|* |* |* |* *|* *|* *|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |BELOW NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 60%| |*| |*|*|*| |*| | | | VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | | * | * | * | * |** |** |** |** | * | 40%| | | | | |*|*| |*| | | 20% | * | **| **| **|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | |*|*|*|*|*|*| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| LOW LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT | | QUALITY |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |ABOVE NORM| * | * | **| **| **| * | **| **| * | * | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | NORMAL|* *|* *|* |* |* |* *|* |* |* *|* *| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |BELOW NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 60%|*| | |*|*|*|*| |*| | | VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | * | | | * | * | * | * | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **| 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% | **| **| **| **| **|***|***| **|***| **| 20%| | | | | |*|*| |*| | | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| NOTES: These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 50 MHz to 220 MHz bands. They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX propagation globally. They should be used only as a guide to potential DX conditions on VHF bands. Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for the HF predictions charts. For more information, request the document "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca". AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (27 JANUARY - 05 FEBRUARY) High Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | * | * | * | * | * | 30% | LOW | | * | * | * | * |***|***|***|***|***| | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | * | 35% | LOW | | | | | |***|***| * |***|***| | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | | 50% | LOW | | | | | | | | | | | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: std_oler@hg.uleth.ca. ** End of Report ** ------------------------------ End of SPACE Digest V13 #112 *******************